Evaluating forecasts, narratives and policy using a test of invariance
Economic policy agencies produce forecasts with accompanying narratives, and base policy changes on the resulting anticipated developments in the target variables. Systematic forecast failure, defined as large, persistent deviations of the outturns from the numerical forecasts, can make the associat...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| 格式: | Journal article |
| 出版: |
MDPI
2017
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