Forecasting UK inflation: the roles of structural breaks and time disaggregation
Structural models' inflation forecasts are often inferior to those of naive devices. This chapter theoretically and empirically assesses this for UK annual and quarterly inflation, using the theoretical framework in Clements and Hendry (1998, 1999). Forecasts from equilibrium-correction mechani...
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| Format: | Working paper |
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University of Oxford
2007
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