On Not Evaluating Economic Models by Forecast Outcomes.
Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur. Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors. This analysis shows that a valid model can forecas...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Department of Economics (University of Oxford)
2011
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