An intercomparison of skill and over/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multi-model seasonal forecasts

Recent studies of individual seasonal forecast systems have shown that the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be skilfully forecast. However, it has also been suggested that these skilful forecasts tend to be underconfident, meaning that there is too high a proportion of unpredictable n...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Baker, LH, Shaffrey, LC, Sutton, RT, Weisheimer, A, Scaife, AA
Format: Journal article
Published: American Geophysical Union 2018