New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA

Forecasts are presented for the 12-month ahead US rate of inflation measured by the chain weighted personal consumer expenditure deflator, PC, and its three main components: non-durable goods, durable goods and services. Monthly models are estimated for 1974 to 1999, and pseudo out-of-sample foreca...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Main Authors: Aron, J, Muellbauer, J
Formato: Working paper
Publicado em: University of Oxford 2008