Some new and old light on the reasons for Ovid's exile

The most common view now on the reasons for Ovid’s exile is that, of the two which he alleges, the unknown error is the real one, the carmen not real. The argument is that the Ars Amatoria was published in or before AD 2 (the usual view), but Ovid was exiled in AD 8 (the universal view). Why a react...